The modeling tools described in this document are chiefly concerned with the prediction, with known confidence, of a spatial stochastic process, {Z(s): s (is in) D}, at an arbitrary location, s0, from data, {z(s1),...,z(sn)}. This is done by characterizing the spatial dependence of the process from the data and using a model of the dependence to construct a predictor that minimizes the mean squared prediction error. The spatial dependence is characterized through the variogram:
The variogram is the variance of the difference of the random process at two locations si and sj. Under the assumption of intrinsic stationarity, this variance is expressed as a function only of the distance (and direction) between the two locations. This dependence is typically analyzed empirically by looking at pairs of points at which samples have been collected. This pairwise analysis of sample points is used in exploratory analysis, parametric variogram model fitting, and spatial prediction, and forms the basis of the modeling tools in the framework.
The framework described in this document consists of exploratory spatial data analysis, variogram modeling and spatial prediction (kriging). The exploratory techniques include many of those described in section 2.2 of Cressie (1993), including lagged scatter plots, variogram cloud scatter plots and variogram cloud box plots. Where appropriate, interactive querying of these plots is allowed.
The discussion of the framework is illustrated using a data set representing precipita tion stations in Iowa. The data set was derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data sets, and contains the location and the total precipitation in the year 1986 for 159 sites in Iowa and 2 sites in Minnesota. The location information is derived from the Station Historical File (TD9767). The precipitation amounts are derived from the NOAA Surface/Land Daily Cooperative Summary of the Day File (TD3200). The TD3200 file contains observations from sites operated by NOAA, as well as cooperative sites operated under agreement with NOAA. The total precipitation for each site was determined by summing the daily values observed at each site during the year 1986. The stations are shown in Figure 22.
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